An open letter to the Duke of Bendale.

I am glad that the puzzle I gave annoys you as much as it did me. Oh and btw, thanks for telling me about your 94% in OAC finite. Now I am convinced!! :) Anyways, if you think that the link only solves the problem by a dodgy program that manipulates the result, I suggest you recreate the game with the Duchess of Bendale to convince yourself. Play the game 50 times and whenever you change the door you will be right two thirds of the time and when you stick you will be right one third of the time. The fact is that when you eliminate one door, you are not left with two equal probability doors. Like I say, it defies logic but do it for yourself and you will be convinced. There is a lot written about this problem and if you still want to be persuaded I suggest you do a google search for the Monty Hall Dilemma.

I look forward to convincing you!!

Best wishes
Tim

A Shameless Plug

I want everyone to know that I am not being paid in any way for this message!!!

However, I downloaded a program called skype today and it is amazing. It is like MSN Messenger in that it allows you to chat online with people but you can also talk to them via a microphone. Ok, so I know that MSN can do that but here is the selling point. It is way better quality than on MSN and also I can call peoples houses from my computer using skype for extremely little money. For example, I called Canada today from England and had a ten minute conversation. It cost me approximately 20 cents.

So the bottom line is this. Either get skype http://www.skype.com and buy a $20 mic to go with it or at least send me an email with your phone number. I will call you at some point!!

I do apologise for my blatant product advertising It is just my way of saying that there are too many people in my life that I don't keep in nearly close enough contact with and that makes me sad. So I really want to fix it.

Alright, being that we are almost through January, I thought I would let everyone know how my New Years Resolutions are going.
1 - I still have not gotten into any trouble with the law although it is only a matter of time before they realize that the greatest robbery in the history of N.Ireland took place only a day after I arrived home.
2 - No beer outside of holidays. Ok, I tried with this one I really did. But when you have to convince a pub to put the NFL on for 4 hours, you can't just sit there and drink orange juice.
3 - Update this blog more often. I think I am doing ok even if all I write about it sports with the occassional spot of religion.
4 - Harrass Canadian Affair. Hmmmmm, this one kindof hasn't started yet partly because I wanted to maintain resolution number one.
5 - Develop a new hair style that I am happy with. Well, the mohawk is still intact and I am starting to like it. But there are law interviews coming up soon.

Oh, and I still haven't had any pringles.

Puzzle somewhat explained and NFL Picks

To those that are expecting me to give an answer to the puzzle that will satisfy them, I apologise. What I was given took me about 3 weeks to accept and it was only after running a simulation of the game, that I gave in.

If you remember, in the previous post, I stated that I picked door A. The host then opened up door B and revealed a fake price. He then asked me if I wanted to pick door C and my correct response should have been to say yes.

The reason for this is to do with probability. When I picked door A, there was a two thirds chance that I was wrong. Most people assume that when door B is opened that this means that suddenly there is a probability of half that A will be correct. This is the logical approach but yet in these cases logic is wrong.

The way to see this is say that there is not A is wrong with probability two thirds but instead two thirds probability that either door B or C is correct. Whenever door B is opened this fact does not change. All that has changed is that we now know that door B is the wrong door. So that means that in actual fact door C has a two thirds probability of being correct while door A has only probability of one third.

Again, I am sure that this does not satisfy everyone but it correct. If you go this link you will be able to play a simulation of the game http://www.dcity.org/braingames/3doors/index.htm

Play the game about 30 times and you will see that when you switch you are right about two thirds of the time and when you stay, you are correct only about one third of the time.

Anyways, now that I have annoyed you all by not offering a completely satisfactory solution and even worse by introducing probability, lets move on to the NFL picks.

Atlanta at Philly.
Lets be honest about one thing, I hate any sports teams related to Philadelphia. For the last two years they have eliminated the Maple Leafs, they eliminated the Packers in 2003 (I still wake up in a cold sweat over 4th and 26th) and if that weren't bad enough, they got rid of the Raptors back in 2000 when Vince Carter missed a game 7 winning shot at the buzzer. That all being said, I really think Atlanta will somehow pull off the win tomorrow. Sports has a tendency to mess with a team or players mind (did I mention the curse is over!!) and it could be that the Eagles are the new century's version of the 1990 Buffalo Bills. With all due respect to Vikings, Philly has not been tested in quite some weeks and I think they are still suspect against the run.
Eagles 17 Falcons 24

New England at Pittsburgh.
The luckiest team to still be alive right now has to be the Steelers. Undoubtedly, they should have lost last week while New England were dominant against Indy who most people picked to win it all. New England continues to find a way to win and tomorrow will be no different.
Pittsburgh 13 New England 17

That's it for me. All thats left is to try and find a pub that is willing to show NFL for 6 hours.

Happy Birthday Dad

First things first. I would just like to wish my Dad a very happy birthday. I am sure that he would not be embarrassed by my telling everyone that he is 51 today.

Despite the fact that I continue to leave the family at home, Dad continues to be a supportive extremely positive influence on my life and I am extremely grateful to him for everything that he has done and indeed continues to do to help me. I love you lots Dad!!

I also wanted to share an extremely intriguing puzzle that my sister Linda gave me over Christmas. When she told me the answer, I didn't believe her as it defied logic but now after struggling with the problem for a few weeks, I am convinced that she is right.

You are on a game show. The host points to three doors in the studio. Behind one of the doors is a car and behind the two others is the fake price. Obviously, you don't know which prize lies behind each door.

You are told to pick one of the doors. You pick door A, for exampleThen the host opens one of the two doors that you have not picked (say door B) and reveals a fake price. He then offers you the chance to change your mind and choose the other remaining door (door C)

What should you do?

The correct answer is change your mind. It defies logic and I didn't believe it at first but have a think and see if you can work out why. I will tell you in the next update.

God's Politics

I am an avid fan of the Daily Show and each day I make a point of downloading the previous night's episode as the show isn't broadcast in the UK.

If nothing else, the show is always good for laugh, poking fun at situations in the world that if we didn't laugh at, we most likely despair. However, often there is a deeply serious message of how we in society can better ourselves.

One such show was last night when there was a guest by the name of Jim Wallis. Jim has just written a book called God's Politics and I could relate to much of what he said and his despair with evangelical movement. Only last week, there was mass protest over a play that was to be put on BBC2 called Jerry Springer - The Opera because it contained mass swearing, violence and supposed blasphemy which was offensive to Christians. Yet these were the same Christians that only a year ago were renting out movie theatres so that they could show The Passion of the Christ. Surely that movie while not containing much bad language (it was in Aramaic) had horrendous scenes of violence and was also deeply offensive to Jews. For the record, I had no problem with the film as I believe it protrayed the gospels quite accurately and if one is honest, the gospels are offensive to Jews. I have not seen the Jerry Springer opera yet but I have it taped and will check it out soon.

My point can be summarized by what Jim Wallis said last night in that Christians think they have a monopoly on morality - and moreso they are going to limit that to two issues, those of gay marriage and abortion. This despite the fact that there are 9000 verses in the bible that speak of poverty.

And yet I consider myself one of these Christians. I love God, I love the scriptures but I don't love what we have done with them. Those that don't understand Christianity think the religion is about nothing but judging others. I guess I understand what they are saying as I can't tell you how many times I have heard the phrase in church "if you were to die tonight do you know where your eternal whereabouts would be?"

So if Christians are so bad, why do I persevere with it? The answer is that if the religion is properly applied, it can be radical. When I say applied, I don't mean by Christians, for the wonderful thing is that Christianity does not have to be exclusive and it can applied by everyone.

How? Well Jesus said "I was hungry,you gave me nothing to eat, I was thirsty, you gave me nothing to drink, I was naked, you did not clothe me, I was a stranger, you did not welcome me, I was sick, you did not come to see me and I was in prison and you never visited me." Jesus continued. "As you have done to the least of these, you have done to me". Christians love to talk about judgment but read Matthew 25 where this story is from. It says that this standard of compassion is what we will be judged by.

I have been filled with such hope to hear of the worlds compassion to the people suffering in South East Asia. But the test is, can we keep it going? No matter what are view on God is, or whether we have one or not, how are we going to treat his children?

NFL Divional Playoff Picks

Gotta make this quick as I have to get into a major paper which is yet to completed and is due in on Monday. It actually constitutes 6% of my final law mark so consider that important if you want.

New York Jets at Pittsburgh.
I have no idea why I like the Jets but all season they have impressed me and I am not about to jump off the bandwagon now. Pennington is developing very nicely and if the Steelers are ever going to be knocked off, it is now.
Pittsburgh 13 - New York Jets 18

St Louis at Atlanta
Ok, here is how big the Vick fanclub has become. In yesterdays Independent (an overly leftist paper in the UK), a full page article was dedicated to life of Michael Vick. Now understand, this paper normally dedicates 6 pages to soccer, another 3 to cricket and maybe two pages to the rest of them (which are normally rugby and tennis). Who am I to argue with the Independent?
Atlanta 31 St Louis 10

Minnesota at Philadelphia
Ok Vikings fans, when you lose tomorrow, I don't want to hear any complaining about how every Viking team always chokes, how Mike Tice can't be trusted and general all round complaining about how tough life is as a Vikings fan. If you actually believe you can win this game tomorrow, you are only asking for the suffering you about to endure.
Don't claim that Philly has no momentum because we all know how much momentum the Vikings had when they went up to Lambeau field and on that note, don't go overboard as to how well your team played. They did play well, Daunte is a great player and in Moss, you have one hell of a receiver. But, the 49ers would have had a chance if they were playing at Lambeau last week.
Be satisfied with how far you have come. It is a round further that you have ever went before (at least in recent times).
Eagles 31 Vikings 24

Colts at New England
What a game this will be. I want to see it so badly but this essay may put pay to that. I don't have much logic for this and I guess I am relying mostly on history but I just can't see Manning outdoing the Pats defence. He is amazing at home without question, the best QB in the league, however away on grass against a reasonable defence, he is human and indeed will feel the pressure. That being said, I expect this game to be extremely close and one big play could make all the difference.
New England 24 Colts 20

That is all for now. I promise I will write a non sports blog after I get these next few days of craziness out of the way. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Team advances through a deliberate own goal

Sorry to do another sports blog but I assure you that you will all find this one entertaining. I heard this story today and checked it out online. It is actually true.

Basically Barbados were playing Grenada and managed to actually advance into the next round by scoring a deliberate own goal.

Barbados needed to win the game by two clear goals in order to progress to the next round. Now the trouble was caused by a daft rule in the competition which stated that in the event of a game going to penalty kicks, the winner of the penalty kicks would be awarded a 2-0 victory.

With 5 minutes to go, Barbados were leading 2-1, and going out of the tournament (because they needed to win by 2 clear goals). Then, when they realized they were probably not going to score against Grenada's massed defence, they turned round, and deliberately scored on their own goal to level the scores and take the game into penalties. Grenada, themselves not being stupid, realized what was going on, and then attempted to score an own goal themselves. However, the Barbados players started defending their opponents goal to prevent this.

In the last five minutes, spectators were treated to the incredible sight of both team's defending their opponents goal against attackers desperately trying to score an own goal and goalkeepers trying to throw the ball into their own net. The game went to penalties, which Barbados won and so were awarded a 2-0 victory and progressed to the next round.

I think this puts my Green Bay tragedy into perspective and reminds us all that at heart, sports really are ridulous.

An open letter to Steve Johns and Jeff Whyte

To my fellow Vikings fans.

Congratulations on making an Irishman cry.

Seriously, you must both be over the moon with excitement right now and the thing that makes it worse is that I can't argue about the result.

The best team won by a long shot. There was a period in the 4th quarter after the Pack had pulled it back to 24-17 that I really thought we would do it but to be honest it would have been a travesty if we had won. No team that throws 4 interceptions and fumbles 3 times deserves anything better than what the Packers got yesterday.

By now, I am sure that anyone who isn't Steve Johns or Jeff Whyte will have stopped reading but if there is anyone else reading this blog, I apologise for the fact that I am just moping about the loss.

OK, to try and be positive. I have identified two elements of what happened last night that offer comfort.

1 - Most importantly, I might still get to see Brett Favre play. Everyone says that if he had won the superbowl this year that he would have retired for sure. Now, he still may do but there is more chance of him continuing for at least another year now and so I might get to see him play next season.

2 - It actually creates the rivalry in my head with the Vikings. What I mean is that for the last two years since I have gotten into the NFL, the Packers have always managed to come out on top in rivalries between these two clubs. Whether it be Arizona converting on 4th down with no time remaining or Ryan Longwell scoring last second field goals I really had no reason to hate the Vikings. Now believe me I do and I feel that the rivalry between me and Steve/Jeff can only benefit.

That all being said, last night was devastating. It reminded me of Ireland in the last rugby world cup. I had gotten myself excited about the quarter final and was convinced they would win. When they lost, it wasn't as if it was a close battle. They were destroyed and played horribly.

Which brings me to my final point and I really would appreciate any feedback possible on this. For the next 6 months, I will be saying how badly the Packers played. You guys will no doubt be praising the performance of your team and rightfully so. Only two weeks ago the exact reverse was the situation and I was so happy while Steve was blaming everyone under the sun for the Vikings defeat and stating how they had no heart, bad coaching etc.

Is is possible to ever have a situation where two teams play as well as they can, enjoy an epic battle only for one big play to decide things. The Packers/Colts game from the start of the season comes to mind but even with that, everyone says that the defences played badly. Sometimes, one team plays amazing and somehow manages to lose to a team that played badly (Leafs/Philly game 6 of 2004). But it never seems that one team wins by playing as well as they can and the other loses but in reality played as well as they could. Can you think of any examples?

So congratulations to you both. You deserve to milk this moment and hold it over me for years to come. Indeed, although I probably will not be able to watch the NFL for a few weeks now as I go through the grieving process, I do hope that you manage to beat Philly. Cuz if there is one team that I still hate more than the Vikings, it is the Eagles. Just watch out for 4th and 26

NFL Wild Card Picks

Ok, so I don't really know too much about teams in the NFL outside of the Green Bay Packers but I figured that I should least make some predictions about the weekends action. Now bear in mind, I am not talking about games against the spread here as I think that system is dumb. What I will do however is give my prediction of the actual score.

1. Seattle 24. St Louis 17. All season I have been waiting for Seattle to fulfil the potential that they have threatened to show throughout over the last two years. I like Hasselbeck at home and I don't like St.Louis outside of the dome.

2. San Diego 14. New York Jets 19.This is the upset game of the first round as I see it. Granted the Jets haven't exactly been on a role recently but I like Pennington and to be honest I don't know enough about San Diego. Steve-o always says to never bet against the Chargers and seeing as how I don't agree with him about anything in the NFL ever, I feel that is as good a reason as any to take the Jets here.

3. Colts 31. Broncos 13. Manning at home. This isn't the week for him to choke yet.

4. Green Bay 35. Vikings 22. Clearly this is the game that no one will pay attention to my pick as I am so clearly biased. However Green Bay really should win this game. That being sais Culpepper scares me and his ability to run with the ball and avoid the sack should see him make a lot of good throws. However, recently the Green Bay secondary as shown evidence that they might be starting to understand a cover defence. On the other side Green Bay's offence power is proven. Look for this game to be close until the 4th quarter when the running game tires out the Vikings defence and Favre is able to get to work.

So there you have it. I am really mad that I don't get to watch these games live in the UK as I don't know any students here who have enough cash to fork out on Sky Sports. Plus all the pubs over here are a little too into the FA Cup to show the NFL At least there is a highlights package on normal tv come Monday night!!!

I hate Man United so much

Ok

So people used to always ask me just why I hate Manchester United. Well this past weekend was the one that illustrated it better than anything I can imagine.

Liverpool were playing Chelsea, who btw are the current league leaders in England. Two days later Manchester United were to play Tottenham, who are also playing extremely well as well.

Now Liverpool dominated Chelsea, I mean played this best team in England off the park. But two things stood in the way. The first was an extremely good Chelsea defence and the other was just terrible reffing. We were denied one clear penalty for a push and then the worst of it all. As Nunez rose to head what surely would have been a goal from only 6 yards out, the ball inexplicably went the other direction off his head. Immediately 11 Liverpool players, 50000 people at the stadium and everyone watching on tv yelled "Handball". Yet for some reason, it was not given. I was furious but even more so when I watched the replay and saw the ref actually put the whistle to his mouth and then decide not to give the penalty. It was a cert of a penalty but we never got it and the game ended 1-0 to Chelsea who scored a deflected lucky goal with only minutes to go.

Then in the United game, things were spluttering to a 0-0 draw. Then Tottenham hit a long range hopeful shot. The United goalie drops it and it falls at least a yard (i'm not kidding a full yard) behind the goal line.

Yet the ref decided not to give to goal and Tottenham were robbed.

I know it is illogical to think that these events mean anything, but United always come out on the good end and we always get screwed.

And that is why they are the Great Evil.

Some New Year Resolutions

Hello all. I do trust that you have had a good Christmas.

Over the break, I got to relax and even do some surfing. Unfortunately, I also discovered that I was mistaken in my last post when I said I could beat my future brother in law at golf. Still, I am sure I will find something I can beat him at.

I thought that this time would be appropriate to make a few resolutions. That way, I can see what I have not done in a month or so's time (or probably next week).

1 - Avoid getting in trouble with the law. I am meant to be an advocate for the law, not an opponent. So I say 2005 will be the year where there are no police chases, and nobody thinks that I am stealing bikes.

2 - No beer outside of holidays. This one will be tough as I do love beer. However, I feel that it can more than compensated for by whiskey. The problem is that I clearly have developed a belly and I figure that cutting beer out of the diet will help with that. On that note, I gave up Pringles (a huge deal for me) about a month ago. This must also continue into the New Year. Oh and on a btw, everybody says that the worst thing I can do is to eat before I go to bed. But I am always so hungry at that time. Any ideas?

3 - Update this thing more often. I slipped into the once a week abyss last year. I will update this blog more even if that means that it doesn't get spellchecked, makes completely no sense and most of my articles discuss the forthcoming NFL playoffs.

4 - Harass Canadian Affair. This firm has refused to be at all helpful over the fiasco that took place in October. I intend to see if Andy Defrenne was correct in the Shawshank redemption by bugging them until they grant me my library (or at least offer compensation).

5 - Develop a new hair style that I am happy with. I have had the flick for about 6 years now and over Christmas I tried out the mohawk for a bit. Not sure if that is the long term solution but I will try a few and see what happens.

That's all I can think of for now. 2005 promises to be a very hard working first 6 months, then some fantastic travelling which will include Canada in August and then after that who knows. London, England is the likely option but I haven't given on Toronto just yet.